24/7 population modelling for enhanced assessment of exposure to natural hazards

There is a growing need for accurate spatio-temporal population estimates free from arbitrary administrative boundaries and temporal divisions to make enhanced assessments of population exposure to natural hazards. The approach proposed here combines the use of a spatio-temporal gridded population model to estimate temporary variations in population with natural hazard exposure estimations. It has been exemplified through a Southampton (UK) centred application using Environment Agency flood map inundation data. Results demonstrate that large fluctuations in the population within flood risk zones occur. Analysis indicates a diurnal shift in exposure to fluvial and tidal flooding, particularly attributed to the working age population. This highlights the improvements achievable to flood risk management as well as potential application to other natural hazard scenarios both within the UK and globally

Developing a flexible framework for spatiotemporal population modeling

This article proposes a general framework for modeling population distributions in space and time. This is particularly pertinent to a growing range of applications that require spatiotemporal specificity; for example, to inform planning of emergency response to hazards. Following a review of attempts to construct time-specific representations of population, we identify the importance of assembling an underlying data model at the highest resolution in each of the spatial, temporal, and attribute domains. This model can then be interrogated at any required intersection of these domains. We argue that such an approach is necessary to moderate the effects of what we term the modifiable spatiotemporal unit problem in which even detailed spatial data might be inadequate to support time-sensitive analyses. We present an initial implementation of the framework for a case study of Southampton, United Kingdom, using bespoke software (SurfaceBuilder247). We demonstrate the generation of spatial population distributions for multiple reference times using currently available data sources. The article concludes by setting out key research areas including the enhancement and validation of spatiotemporal population methods and model

24/7 population modelling for natural hazard assessment

Presentation given at the Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Tampa, Florida 201

Geographical referencing resources for social scientists

The Geo-Refer project involves the creation and deployment of a digital library of learning resources targeted at social scientists whose primary discipline is not geography, but whose research requires them to use and link geographically referenced data. Geographical location provides a key mechanism for linkage between sources, for example between individual-level survey responses or health records and existing secondary data such as that provided by the census of population. Further examples include sets of data for incompatible areal units and primary data collection using the global positioning system

Assessing the impact of seasonal population fluctuation on regional flood risk management

This paper focuses on the integration of population and environmental models to address the effect of seasonally varying populations on exposure to flood risk. A spatiotemporal population modelling tool, Population24/7, has been combined with LISFLOOD-FP inundation model outputs for a study area centred on St Austell, Cornwall, UK. Results indicate seasonal cycles in populations and their exposure to flood hazard which are not accounted for in traditional population datasets or flood hazard analyses and which provide potential enhancements to current practice

THE LANDSCAPE: A GOOD OF CULTURE, IDENTIFICATION AND RICHNESS

The adoption of a systematic in geography has helped to "revolutionize" and in the same time to complete the notion of landscape that, until the half '900, has mastered the international geographic research. We are passed from definitions of the landscape like complex of the sensible features of a region of landscape like theatre etc. to that of landscape as structured system, where the natural and anthropic component are melt in a system which complexity is given by the inextricability of their relations as seen in a historical perspective. Already L. Gambi, however, in 1964 had adopted a first interpretative approach to the complexity of the landscape, looking no more at the man in the nature, according to Biasutti's point of view, but putting the "man in history" near the nature who, exploiting his kind of life contributes at the constitution of the "Anthropogeographic landscape". The centrality of the history in the processes of complexification of the landscape has been put, most recently, in evidence by Paola Sereno (2001): the landscape is composed of elements that belong to the various processes of territorialization, then at more territorial systems that the history produces, transmit some components that, changing even meaning and function, are reunited in a new system, establish new connections with other elements inside of new processes of territorialization. Not exist however a true "past" of the landscape if not in the whole of the continuous morphogenetic processes that had characterized it. In this perspective the landscape's tutelage not is immediately connected at the tutelage of a cultural, architectonic or monumental good that would be, because the same landscape configure itself as the historical - geographical context that the single object inside it get meaning; a context complex, however, because not only the simple union of elements, but the architecture of the nexus that tie them. The landscape configure itself as a whole of signs imprinted by the community to the own territory; it become then expression of belonging that consents to the men of recognize and identify themselves in the "places". Every landscape then has strong individualizing characters that consent the emersion of the deep roots of the realities that constitute the identity of the human groups that in time have established themselves in the territory. (Mautone, 1999). It is uncovered then an ambivalence that, according to M.C. Zerbi (1999) constitute the very essence of the complexity of the notion of landscape: from a side the landscape as visible, external, objective reality, that the observer can see, on the other side the mental image that the observer build for himself, the subjective dimension that is more strictly connect to the notion of cultural landscape. In particular Zerbi see how in the contemporary geographic research, the notion of landscape is seen in three different aspects that presuppose various uses. The first aspect concern The notion of cultural landscape, to whom geography has dedicate much time, as landscape modified by human work. Is derived a large meaning of this term, because the human work -directly or indirectly- manifests itself in a great number of landscapes. Is, however, according Zerbi, a good starting point to pick the past and present dynamics through an approach at the same time ecologic and historical - geographical. When then some elements of the cultural landscape stand out which are particularly appraised or are perceived as menaced in their own existence, it comes out the concept of landscape as patrimonial heritage. Is a more selective concept than previous, which concerns a reality full of values: archaeological sites, traditional agrarian cultivations, ancient houses become a heritage to protect and maintain more than to hand down. The historical gardens and parks too find place in this concept, becoming a planning object. There is even, according M.C. Zerbi, a third notion of cultural landscape that, this time, consider the landscape not only a objective reality, but a subjective interpretation of elements held in the ambient to which various human groups attribute different meanings and values. 228 Landscape then as way to see that surrounds us. At first sight it could seem an abstract approach, less responding to reality; is, instead, an approach that has validity even on the operative plane when is needed to know the values of the insiders, to make them aware of the planning of their complex of life

Towards 2011 output geographies: exploring the need for, and challenges involved in, maintenance of the 2001 output geographies

This article describes and presents early results from the ESRC-funded Census 2011Geog project, which aims to develop and evaluate automated procedures to maintain (split, merge or re-design) the 2001 Census output geographies in order to create the 2011 output geographies for England and Wales. The article explores population change at the small area level between 2001 and 2005–06, and considers the extent to which the 2001 Census output geographies are likely to be appropriate for the release of 2011 Census data. It concludes that the vast majority of output geography areas are unlikely to have breached population thresholds by 2011, but that a small proportion of areas will require maintenance. The article finishes with a discussion of the key decisions that need to be made before the automated procedures can be implemented operationally